Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 27.701652 30.753491 34.243929 38.589930 43.942855 50.443594 59.141179
2025-03-23 23.175120 26.966556 31.683734 38.181545 47.258290 60.142877 81.323354
2025-03-30 20.271942 24.384982 29.826469 37.937337 50.546534 71.302281 114.206076
2025-04-06 17.991708 22.146402 27.888124 36.966574 52.342747 81.196448 157.006941
2025-04-13 17.036863 21.502095 27.978915 38.946426 59.611837 106.128083 292.221734
2025-04-20 15.733561 20.164744 26.789876 38.521872 62.329201 124.079556 510.229506
2025-04-27 14.814373 19.263555 26.110959 38.783898 66.563467 151.472993 1338.617067
2025-05-04 14.076390 18.542694 25.599341 39.210351 71.407893 189.594583 28825.608755
2025-05-11 13.389932 17.825922 24.988258 39.295951 75.522652 235.701455 NaN
2025-05-18 12.695103 17.031050 24.143864 38.730386 77.677188 280.699572 NaN
2025-05-25 12.187942 16.491601 23.679007 38.870533 82.099859 364.830913 NaN
2025-06-01 11.666481 15.887444 23.032331 38.487825 84.761513 458.818881 NaN
2025-06-08 11.171126 15.300282 22.375038 38.006495 87.114910 589.517851 NaN
2025-06-15 10.726657 14.769517 21.774933 37.565613 89.558932 790.547030 NaN
2025-06-22 10.343964 14.318308 21.283626 37.307835 92.755007 1172.033287 NaN
2025-06-29 9.916058 13.765985 20.555607 36.354445 92.598958 1518.618775 NaN
2025-07-06 9.830176 13.790448 20.934971 38.274118 107.206313 16926.959821 NaN
2025-07-13 9.513018 13.395356 20.456527 37.859471 110.061582 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.283189 13.140145 20.235977 38.112925 117.119338 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.083416 12.926495 20.080998 38.526560 125.917544 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.867972 12.673494 19.825046 38.609430 132.987970 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.613929 12.339525 19.377800 38.060083 135.200155 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 8.430922 12.125369 19.167001 38.196142 143.303515 NaN NaN